Shaking and splashing—A case study of far-field effects of the Mjølnir asteroid impact on depositional environments in the Barents Sea

publishedVersio

A multiproxy approach to understanding the impact of the Storegga tsunami upon Mesolithic hunter-fisher-gatherers across different regions of western Norway

publishedVersio

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.Published219-2446T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremot

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning

NEAMTHM18

European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26Published6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto4IT. Banche dat

The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.publishedVersio

The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

ABSTRACT: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning

The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase

publishedVersio

Simulating tsunami propagation in fjords with long-wave models

Tsunamis induced by rock slides constitute a severe hazard towards coastal fjord communities. Fjords are narrow and rugged with steep slopes, and modeling the short-frequency and high-amplitude tsunamis in this environment is demanding. In the present paper, our ability (and the lack thereof) to simulate tsunami propagation and run-up in fjords for typical wave characteristics of rock-slide-induced waves is demonstrated. The starting point is a 1 : 500 scale model of the topography and bathymetry of the southern part of Storfjorden fjord system in western Norway. Using measured wave data from the scale model as input to numerical simulations, we find that the leading wave is moderately influenced by nonlinearity and dispersion. For the trailing waves, dispersion and dissipation from the alongshore inundation on the traveling wave become more important. The tsunami inundation was simulated at the two locations of Hellesylt and Geiranger, providing a good match with the measurements in the former location. In Geiranger, the most demanding case of the two, discrepancies are larger. The discrepancies may be explained by a combinations of factors, such as the accumulated errors in the wave propagation along large stretches of the fjord, the coarse grid resolution needed to ensure model stability, and scale effects in the laboratory experiments

Dispersion of tsunamis: does it really matter?

-This article focuses on the effect of dispersion in the field of tsunami modeling. Frequency dispersion in the linear long-wave limit is first briefly discussed from a theoretical point of view. A single parameter, denoted as "dispersion time", for the integrated effect of frequency dispersion is identified. This parameter depends on the wavelength, the water depth during propagation, and the propagation distance or time. Also the role of long-time asymptotes is discussed in this context. The wave generation by the two main tsunami sources, namely earthquakes and landslides, are briefly discussed with formulas for the surface response to the bottom sources. Dispersive effects are then exemplified through a semi-idealized study of a moderate-strength inverse thrust fault. Emphasis is put on the directivity, the role of the "dispersion time", the significance of the Boussinesq model employed (dispersive effect), and the effects of the transfer from bottom sources to initial surface elevation. Finally, the experience from a series of case studies, including earthquake- and landslide-generated tsunamis, is presented. The examples are taken from both historical (e.g. the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and potential tsunamis (e.g. the tsunami after the potential La Palma volcanic flank collapse). Attention is mainly given to the role of dispersion during propagation in the deep ocean and the way the accumulation of this effect relates to the "dispersion time". It turns out that this parameter is useful as a first indication as to when frequency dispersion is important, even though ambiguity with respect to the definition of the wavelength may be a problem for complex cases. Tsunamis from most landslides and moderate earthquakes tend to display dispersive behavior, at least in some directions. On the other hand, for the mega events of the last decade dispersion during deep water propagation is mostly noticeable for transoceanic propagation